MagpieStats

NFL Projections

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System

Magpie is an accuracy-weighted blend of public projection systems, validated season-by-season per position.
Jackdaw is our own independent regression system. How this works →

Sleepers & Busts

How accurate is each system?

Jackdaw: strengths & weaknesses

DEF — a real strength, with one real exception

Strengths

  • Fumble recoveries +++
  • Defensive TDs +++
  • Safeties +++
  • Interceptions ++
  • Sacks ++
  • Points allowed, weakest of the group but still real +

Weaknesses

  • Blocked kicks — the one real exception, everything else beats the field average −

K — real strength across the board

Strengths

  • 50+ yard field goals made +++
  • Field goal misses ++
  • Extra points made ++
  • 40-49 yard field goals made ++
  • 0-39 yard field goals made, weakest of the group but still real +

Weaknesses

  • None — every scored kicking stat beats the field average.

RB — a real mix

Strengths

  • Fumbles lost +
  • Rushing TD +

Weaknesses

  • Receiving yards −−
  • Receiving TD −−
  • Rushing yards −−
  • Receptions, weakest of the group but still real −

WR — one real strength, receiving volume a weakness

Strengths

  • Fumbles lost +++

Weaknesses

  • Receptions −−−
  • Receiving yards −−
  • Receiving TD, weakest of the group but still real −

TE — flips entirely against the field average, no real strengths left

Strengths

  • None

Weaknesses

  • Fumbles lost −−−
  • Receptions −−
  • Receiving yards, weakest of the group but still real −
  • Receiving TD, weakest of the group but still real −

QB — the field's single worst cell is here

Strengths

  • Interceptions thrown, weakest edge on the page but still real +

Weaknesses

  • Rushing yards — the single worst cell anywhere on this page −−−
  • Fumbles lost −−−
  • Passing yards −−−
  • Rushing TD −−−
  • Passing TD −−