These stats are under construction. If you want to see the sausage making
then please click here.
NBA Projections
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System
Magpie is an accuracy-weighted blend of Jackdaw and public projection systems.
Jackdaw is our own independent regression system, used as fallback where Magpie isn't published for a
player. How this works →
Create my rankings
Customize the real scoring and roster rules below to match your own league — every ranking, VOR, and Auction $ on this page recomputes live from whatever's set here.
Pick a real platform default below (or Points/Categories mode, where offered) as a starting point.
Edit any weight, roster slot, or category directly to match your own league's actual rules — nothing here is locked to the default.
Every ranking, VOR, and Auction $ value on this page recomputes immediately from whatever's currently set, not a fixed default.
The Risk slider (Floor/Projected/Ceiling) shifts those same rankings toward each player's real floor or ceiling, using the real spread across independent projection sources.
Scoring
Pick a real platform default below, or edit any number directly to match your
real league.
Standard 9-cat, deselect any that don't apply to your league, or
turn on extras below (only real, exactly-computable ones are offered).
Risk
Moves rankings, VOR, and Auction $ (both league types) toward each player's
real floor or ceiling instead of the projected midpoint, using the real spread across independent
projection sources. A player without enough independent sources to measure a real spread is
unaffected.
Categories league ranks your
team across a chosen set of individual stats (the categories below), same as a real roto/head-to-head
categories league. Points league combines every stat into one weighted total instead -- pick whichever
matches your real league's actual format.
Moves rankings, VOR, and
Auction $ (both league types) toward each player's real floor or ceiling instead of the projected
midpoint, using the real spread across independent projection sources. A player without enough
independent sources to measure a real spread is unaffected.
Sleepers & Busts
Diff = ADP rank minus
system rank under your current scoring settings. A sleeper's system rank is much better than where the
market is drafting them; a bust's is much worse. Shown here: anyone the market and the model disagree on by
a full round or more (one round = your league size) — a gap of a spot or two isn't a real signal, just
where two reasonable rankings happen to differ.
How accurate is each system?
Jackdaw: strengths & weaknesses
Sourced from basketballstats' own
strengths_weaknesses.json export as of 2026-09-23, after they rolled a real fix into it. This
panel previously sourced itself from this site's own single-season numbers instead, because their export
was showing Jackdaw negative on all 9 categories against a field comparison that turned out to be
coverage-biased — a vendor that only projects easy, popular players gets an artificially low error, which
drags the "field average" down and makes every honest, full-coverage system look worse than it is by
comparison. Confirmed and fixed on their end: every source is now matched onto the same real common
population per (season, category) before comparing — same real methodology otherwise, margin over the mean
error across every other scored system in that cell (leave-one-out, so Jackdaw is never scored partly
against its own opinion), pooled across real seasons 2018-2026 rather than this page's own previous
single-season (2025) scope. Only stats this site actually scores by default are shown here — minutes,
three-point attempts, and games played all matter too, but none of the three is in
defaultPointsWeights, so they're left out rather than mixed in with what's actually scored.
+ / ++ / +++ and − / −− / −−− — each tier is the number's rank within its
own third of every positive (or negative) value on this page, not a fixed cutoff.
2018–2026, coverage-adjusted — free throw % edges the field, everything else still trails it
Strengths
Free throw %, the one category where Jackdaw comes out ahead, and only barely +
