MLB Projections

Create my rankings ⓘ

Customize the real scoring and roster rules below to match your own league — every ranking, VOR, and Auction $ on this page recomputes live from whatever's set here.

Categories league ranks your team across a chosen set of individual stats (the categories below), same as a real roto/head-to-head categories league. Points league combines every stat into one weighted total instead -- pick whichever matches your real league's actual format.

Moves rankings, VOR, and Auction $ (both league types) toward each player's real floor or ceiling instead of the projected midpoint, using the real spread across independent projection sources. A player without enough independent sources to measure a real spread is unaffected.

Sleepers & Busts ⓘ

Diff = ADP rank minus system rank under your current scoring settings. A sleeper's system rank is much better than where the market is drafting them; a bust's is much worse. Shown here: anyone the market and the model disagree on by a full round or more (one round = your league size) — a gap of a spot or two isn't a real signal, just where two reasonable rankings happen to differ.

How accurate is each system? ⓘ

Jackdaw: strengths & weaknesses ⓘ

Scoped to jackdaw_pd specifically — the plate-discipline variant, both the licence-clean choice for publication (see the project README) and, independently, the strongest all-around performer of the six Jackdaw variants this project builds. Paul, 2026-08-25: "for jackdaw strengths and weaknesses we should show against the average and not the baseline" — real, different numbers, computed by baseballstats: margin over the mean error across every scored system in that cell (leave-one-out, so Jackdaw is never scored partly against its own opinion), over the real drafted cohort (NFBC ADP phases, 13 pooled seasons 2012-2025 ex 2020). Refreshed 2026-08-26. Covers every stat this site actually scores by default, both modes — the 5x5 roto categories (R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG, W/SO/SV/ERA/WHIP) and the additional stats only defaultPointsWeights scores (1B/2B/3B/BB/HBP for batters, H/ER/BB/HBP allowed for pitchers). outs (innings-pitched workload, not a rate skill the way the rest of these are) is left out of the tiering below for the same reason a playing-time projection isn't mixed into an accuracy read anywhere else on this site. + / ++ / +++ and − — each tier is the number's rank within its own third of every positive (or negative) value on this page, not a fixed cutoff.

A real, genuinely interesting wrinkle, checked directly rather than published on trust: the numbers below are pooled across every drafted round. Split by early (rounds 1-10, elite/starter-caliber picks) vs late (round 11+, deep/bench-caliber picks), batters and pitchers move in OPPOSITE directions. Batters get MEASURABLY WEAKER in early rounds and MEASURABLY STRONGER in late rounds on R/HR/RBI/AVG specifically — baseballstats' own diagnosis: Jackdaw's shrinkage discipline correctly regresses a marginal late-round player's numbers, but over-corrects a genuinely elite early-round player's real production, so it loses ground exactly where it's most conservative and gains it exactly where that conservatism is warranted. Pitchers show close to the OPPOSITE pattern on several rate stats (W/ERA/WHIP/hits-allowed/earned-runs stronger early, weaker late) — a real, different mechanism, not yet diagnosed as precisely. Saves is too noisy to read either way in this split (small elite-closer sample). The pooled numbers below are still the real, honest population-wide answer — not wrong, just one specific real question ("across everyone actually drafted") rather than "for stars" or "for deep sleepers" specifically.